If politics is the name of unnatural and unique companions and wars are a continuation of politics, then it is no wonder that wars are a shameful game of geopolitics. It is a complex web of promises and deceptions, pleas and denials and alliances.
Now look at the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Although the world considers the region of Nagorno-Karabakh to be part of Azerbaijan, it has been an independent state since 1994. The region has the support of Armenia, but Armenia has not recognized it as an independent state.
In 1920, Azerbaijani forces tried to take control of the area, but Bolshevik forces occupied Azerbaijan. Armenia was not only pleased with the move, but also felt that Russia, which is culturally and religiously close to Armenia, would cede the territory of Negrono Karabakh to Armenia. But Russia’s intentions were different, and in the same year Bolshevik forces occupied Armenia. The new government has vowed to tackle the problem, but it has been frozen for decades to come.
One of the reasons was that Stalin did not want to upset Turkey, which was and still is an important ally of Azerbaijan. In addition, Russia at the time saw Turkey as a future ally.
More importantly, both Azerbaijan and Armenia were part of the USSR, and it was in Stalin’s and his predecessors’ advantage to continue the tug-of-war between the two countries, as Russia was thus a dominant mediator. Would get status. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions over Karabakh resumed, and in 1994, Azerbaijani forces were forced to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The standoff that ensued lasted until the recent tensions.
Today, Turkey is Azerbaijan’s largest ally. It has not only provided diplomatic assistance to Azerbaijan but also sent military aid to Azerbaijan. However, other alliances in the region are as complex and intricate as a spider’s web.
Take the example of Iran. Our common sense would be that Iran would support a Shiite-majority country, Azerbaijan, rather than a Christian country, Armenia, but in reality the matter is not so simple.
Iran is not happy with Turkey’s presence on its northern borders. In addition, it has to deal with the growing Azeri and Turkish nationalism in the country. There are about 12 million Azeri in Iran. Although these people blend into society, there have been signs of unrest and chaos among the Azeri people in Iran in recent times. Their complaint is that their language and identity are being walled off by the Iranian government. This nationalism is fueled by growing ties with Azerbaijan and satellite broadcasts from Turkey and other countries.
This nationalism is also in line with the policies of Turkish President Erdogan. Erdogan is currently playing the card of Turkish nationalism very well, and for him the war is aimed at advancing this policy and the people in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, surrounded by Turkey and the country’s deteriorating economic situation. Is a means of distraction.
As well as keeping Turkey out of the region, Iran is also wary of Russian interference in the region, which Russia has historically controlled. So far, Russia has played on both sides and is selling arms to both countries. Russia is waiting to see who will prevail in this tension and Azerbaijan seems to be dominant at the moment.
But it is clear that even a complete victory of Azerbaijan is not in Russia’s interest. Because Azerbaijan and Russia are both gas-exporting countries, and for Russia this gas is not only a source of foreign exchange but also a guarantor of its influence in the region. That is why both Russia and its new ally Iran will want to maintain the status quo, so both countries are pushing for a ceasefire.
Iran is working hard to prove that it is neutral and does not support Armenia. But historically, Israel has been a major factor in Iran’s support for Armenia and its opposition to Azerbaijan.
When the strategic relationship between Turkey and Israel was established about 15 years ago today, Israel also established its relations with Azerbaijan with great diligence and care. The purpose of these relations was to establish a spy system on the Iranian border. Mossad has also set up a station in Azerbaijan for this purpose.
According to a US diplomat, the real depth of the relationship was not revealed. In any case, we know that Israel sells large quantities of arms to Azerbaijan and that Azerbaijan supplies oil to Israel. Obviously, Israel’s growing relations with the Gulf countries will reduce the warmth in the relations between Israel and Azerbaijan, and if we talk about the Gulf countries, the United Arab Emirates will use Armenia to harm Turkey. Along with increasing economic and military cooperation. This is truly a unique alliance.
Originally published at https://zaviews.blogspot.com.