The Real Battle | A War of Economy, Technology, Cyber or Fifth Generation War
In 2017, a best-selling book was published in the United States entitled “War that is inevitable, can the United States and China escape this trap?”
The book Tussauds Trap mentions that a war between an emerging world power and the current world power is inevitable.
In the last five hundred years, there have been 16 times when an emerging fast-growing state has tried to replace a superpower, 12 times resulting in war.
The United States has imposed a number of sanctions on China over its actions in Hong Kong, before the North China Sea or Taiwan or the Huawei conflict. Is happening again.
The current US-China rift is similar to the US-Russia Cold War for six reasons.
1. Both countries have different political systems. The United States is a liberal democracy, while China is a proponent of communist socialism, and both countries are currently managing their own systems successfully.
2- This is a war of supremacy and superiority of two opposing political systems.
3. Both countries claim the supremacy of their system and their traditions and values and consider their political system better for the world.
4. It is a vast and multifaceted war of global rise and influence.
5. After the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States, the world is once again being divided into different blocs, and this division will again be political, geographical and ideological (maybe more than two blocs, the European Union not led by Germany). May prefer to be neutral)
6- Neither side is in a position to fight a clear and unequivocal war.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, when a great period of tension passed, the Cold War ended, the world became unipolar and the United States became the only superpower.
When the United States maintained its monopoly, including the New World Order, the balance of power shifted totally towards the United States.
But the ingenious progress that China has made in every field over the past two decades has hurt the US monopoly and the sole superpower and pushed the world rapidly towards a new Cold War.
The Western world, including the United States, raises the slogan of free market, but the same free market rules have died in the face of China’s giant Huawei’s 5G project.
It should be noted that the Chinese company Huawei 5G is far ahead of all competitors in technology, including the United States, so if China launches 5G, it has the potential to make billions of dollars in profits and capture a large market before other competitors.
The European Union has signaled its acceptance of the new directions for its own interests by recognizing China as a major power.
But in the wake of its recent secession from the European Union and its nationalism, the United Kingdom has imposed sanctions on Huawei’s 5G products and equipment.
The source of the war between the United States and the Soviet Union was military and political supremacy, but the real competition between the United States and China is economic, which means trade, investment, technological superiority and strategic industries are the center of competition.
At its height, the Soviet Union accounted for only 40 percent of the total US GDP at the time, but China is already at 65 percent and growing further. So the real battle between the two countries is over economic supremacy.
The United States and China alone account for 40 percent of the world’s trade. The two countries trade billions of dollars between each other (while the Soviet Union and the United States had almost no trade).
If the two countries get entangled, the whole world economic system can hold its breath and the world forgets all previous recessions.
Although the field of the Cold War is vast with potential for global trade and new alliances, the real focus of its gravity has shifted from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.
This time, the focus of the war is not Europe but Asia, and Asian countries. And if there is a possibility of formal or small-scale clashes, they are in the Pacific, where the interests of the two powers are at odds.
This time, China is playing its cards more beautifully than the Soviet Union. China has invested heavily in African countries, including industrial infrastructure, including roads, ports and railways.
It is also able to meet the huge demand for oil and gas from Africa and is in a position to benefit directly from African resources. China’s domestic and foreign relations are stronger and more stable than those of the Soviet Union.
There is currently no prospect of major competition with Russia. Although the red bear has healed its wounds, there is no longer any major competition in Russia. Relations with China are good, as in the case of the enemy of the enemy, the friend.
In addition, China has important trade relations with Europe. Pakistan is an important ally of China in SAARC countries including Sri Lanka and Nepal. China has already strengthened its ties with the five fastest growing economies (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) by forming the BRICS.
US plus points include Japan, the disputed islands of China, the North China Sea, Taiwan and India. The United States is trying to use these countries in its siege against China. It is also in a position to use its influence against China, including the United Nations.
The Western media is already criticizing China over human rights abuses in Hong Kong by Uighur Muslims in the US.
China’s One Belt One Road is actually China’s most important weapon, because the roads that China plans to build by 2049, one of which is C-Pack, can change the geography of the world. The term Eurasia has already gained popularity with the merging of roads and maritime routes between Europe and Asia, and perhaps this is also the reason for the EU’s relative inclination towards China.
The two world powers, however, cannot go to open war, and the focus of this war will be economic sanctions and economic advantage. The Huawei conflict, the complete shutdown of Western media in China, social media restrictions, and the role of the Great Cyber Wall in this war are symbolically the same as the Berlin Wall of Germany during the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States.
US President Donald Trump has come to power with the slogan “Great Again to America” and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who claims to bring China back to its original place, are both ambitious presidents.
China is now making bold decisions to assert its importance, rather than quietly developing. The Ladakh issue with India also speaks volumes about Chinese intentions. In the wake of the global recession of 2008–09, China openly criticized Western capitalism and offered its own socialist system as an alternative.
This war is a war of economy, technology, cyber or fifth generation war. This is not cold war but soft war.
The United States will continue to impose sanctions on China, China will continue to ally itself with many other countries, including Iran, and whatever the outcome of this war, like the first Cold War, may be nerve-wracking. It will never be polar.
Originally published at https://zaviews.blogspot.com.